Parent Layer: Community Wildfire Protection Plan (CWPP)

Name: CWPP - 2018 - Integrated Wildfire Hazard Level

Display Field: MslaCnty_HazardCode

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Description: This feature class contains polygon features that provide a cartographic representation of the estimated relative integrated wildfire hazard in Missoula County. These polygons depict spatial summaries of underlying raster data representing probabilistic components of wildfire risk, generated through spatial wildfire risk assessments for Missoula County and the Lolo National Forest. Wildfire risk is a measure of both the probability and consequences of uncertain future wildfire events (Thompson, Zimmerman, Mindar, and Taber. 2016). Risk for any specific location is dependent on three components: the chances of a fire occurring there (burn probability or wildfire likelihood), the likely intensity of fire if it occurs, and the susceptibility of something of value at that location. For the 2018 Missoula County CWPP, fine-scale information on the susceptibility of homes was not readily available, but modeled estimates of burn probability and intensity were. The product of burn probability and expected intensity (flame length) is the integrated wildfire hazard depicted in this polygon feature class. Raster data for burn probability were generated by the U.S. Forest Service's Rocky Mountain Research Station (RMRS) in a 2016 risk assessment for the Lolo National Forest, using the FSim large fire simulator system. Raster data for intensity was generated by the Anchor Point Group in a 2016 risk assessment for Missoula County, using FlamMap fire behavior modeling software and a 90th percentile weather scenario. Both approaches used landscape fuel conditions as of 2015, along with topography, historical weather, and wildfire ignition patterns to model fire behavior across all of Missoula County. Integrated wildfire hazard was calculated by RMRS by multiplying the raster layers of burn probability and average expected intensity (flame length). The raster hazard data were then summarized by the polygons in this feature class to eliminate pixilation and avoid inappropriate fine-scale use of the raster modeling data. Raw hazard values were classified into quartiles to reflect the relative hazard across Missoula County. Each polygon represents a catchment area (local drainage area) for stream segments, as defined and delineated in the U.S. EPA's National Hydrography Dataset Plus (NHDPlus) version 2. For this dataset, catchment area polygon features with an area smaller than 40 acres were merged with neighboring polygons using GIS software.

Service Item Id: e6f088f2473d42f28963b2a8c9ffade1

Copyright Text: --Data Sources Rocky Mountain Research Station, U.S. Forest Service - 2018 Missoula County modeled Relative Wildfire Hazard dataset - 2016 Annual Burn Probability Estimate (FSim model output) – 2015 Landscape fuel data (.LCP file) created from LANDFIRE 2012 data and the LANDFIRE Total Fuel Change Tool LANDFIRE Data Distribution Site – Topographic, Surface Fuel, Canopy Fuel, and Vegetation raster layers from LANDFIRE 2012, Version 1.3.0 https://www.landfire.gov/topographic.php https://www.landfire.gov/fuel.php https://www.landfire.gov/vegetation.php https://www.landfire.gov/version_comparison.php Anchor Point Group - 2016 Modeled 90th Percentile Flame Length Estimate (FlamMap model output) --Reference Publications Headwaters Economics. 2016. A Comparison of Two Wildfire Risk Modeling Approaches in Missoula County, Montana. Bozeman, MT. Montana Department of Natural Resources & Conservation, Forestry Division. 2013. 2013 Seeley-Swan Fire Plan. Missoula, MT. http://dnrc.mt.gov/divisions/forestry/docs/fire-and-aviation/wui/SeeleySwanFirePlan_2013_RevisionFinal.pdf Thompson, M.P., T. Zimmerman, D. Mindar, and M. Taber. 2016. Risk Terminology Primer: Basic Principles and a Glossary for the Wildland Fire Management Community. Fort Collins, CO: USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-349. https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/50912 Scott, J.H., M.P. Thompson, and D.E. Calkin. 2013. A wildfire risk assessment framework for land and resource management. Fort Collins, CO: USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-315. https://www.fs.fed.us/rmrs/publications/wildfire-risk-assessment-framework-land-and-resource-management Finney, Mark A.; McHugh, Charles W.; Grenfell, Isaac C.; Riley, Karin L.; Short, Karen C. 2011. A simulation of probabilistic wildfire risk components for the continental United States. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment. 25: 973-1000.

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